Four weeks in and the record column is already lying to half of you. I built the all-play standings so nobody would have to take my word for it, and this week they have receipts on at least three contenders who think a hot streak means something it doesn't. Obviously, nobody asked for this level of rigor. Obviously, you're getting it anyway.

1. Joe Buck Yourself — Ryan Weaver (4-0, 38-6 all-play) Weaver is 4-0 in the record column and 38-6 in the all-play column most of you pretend doesn't exist. That isn't variance, it's just better roster construction than everyone else in the league, full stop. Javonte Williams went for 31.3 and Zay Flowers added 25.8 in a 140.72-81.48 flattening of Brian Jones, and the luck delta of +0.136 means even the best team in the league is running a shade hotter than the all-play math says it deserves. There is no real case against Weaver this week. I checked.

2. Diamond Dogs — Justin Waitt (2-2, 29-15 all-play) Here's the team the record book is actively defaming. Waitt's 29-15 all-play mark is second-best in the league, and his luck delta sits at -0.159, meaning the schedule has cost him real games he deserved to win. Josh Allen's 21.52 and Ashton Jeanty's 18.6 weren't enough against an Elliott Simmonds explosion this week, but a 2-2 record undersells a roster that's quietly been the second-best team in Heavyweights by the numbers that count.

3. ParmBijan Cheese — Trent Harley (4-0, 28-16 all-play) Trent Harley is 4-0 and I remain professionally unmoved. A +0.364 luck delta is the single largest number on this entire page, and it belongs to the newest manager in the league running a 28-16 all-play record that would be good, not great, in anyone else's column. Bijan Robinson's 27.7, Chuba Hubbard's 25.9 and Joe Burrow's 27.72 combined to outscore a 45.2-point week from Tetairoa McMillan on the other side. That's not a system working. That's a coin flip landing on the same side four times running.

4. TacoDreams — Nick Inman (2-2, 25-19 all-play) Nico Collins's 30.8 and Puka Nacua's 27.7 led a 141.98-117.96 win over Ryan El Masri, and Inman's all-play mark of 25-19 is real and defensible, not the product of a generous schedule. A -0.068 luck delta says he's actually been mildly snakebitten relative to the quality of the roster. A win this week, and arguably the most dangerous team sitting outside my top five.

5. bcunnion — Ben Cunnion (2-2, 24-20 all-play) Ben Cunnion sits exactly where the all-play table says he should: competent, unspectacular, a touch unlucky at -0.045. C.J. Stroud's 27.08 and Quinshon Judkins's 21.6 were enough to take down Kevin Jones 131.78-85.3, and Cunnion will tell you three championships means something. The all-play table says 24-20, which is the actual story here, whether or not Fraud Watch likes the sound of it.

6. 4th and 20 — Evan Sinn (1-3, 22-22 all-play) Sinn has made a career out of favorable scheduling, by my own account, so it's worth sitting with the fact that his 2026 luck delta is -0.25, the single worst mark in the league. Tetairoa McMillan dropped 45.2 points and Sinn still lost 150.32-135.62. A 1-3 record sitting on a 22-22, .500 all-play mark is the loudest possible evidence that the schedule has finally turned on him. I'm enjoying this more than I probably should.

7. Chase Greatness — John Penney (3-1, 21-23 all-play) My cause celebre is 3-1 and, for once, the all-play table has him underwater at 21-23 with a +0.273 luck delta, the second-highest in the league. I've long argued Penney is this league's resident victim of variance; the archive doesn't fully cooperate — one season as the luckiest, zero as the unluckiest — but a man with two runner-up finishes against a single title is allowed one favorable month without the whole theory collapsing. Carnell Tate's 21.5 and a 103-76.38 win over Ollie Simmonds keep the record pretty. The model says pretty isn't deserved yet.

8. All Gas No Drakes — Elliott Simmonds (1-3, 20-24 all-play) CeeDee Lamb went for 41.3 points in a 157.04 explosion that buried Justin Waitt, and suddenly a 1-3 team looks like it's finding itself. The -0.205 luck delta says Simmonds has been getting the worst of the schedule all season, and a past champion in his own right doesn't stay buried at this all-play level for long.

9. Wade for Heisman — Kevin Jones (2-2, 19-25 all-play) Three championships in the archive, a 19-25 all-play mark this year, and an L2 streak that includes an 85.3-point no-show against Ben Cunnion. Kenneth Walker's 30.9 wasn't nearly enough support. The record says fine. The numbers say Kevin is drafting off reputation at this point.

10. ArabMamba6 — Ryan El Masri (1-3, 18-26 all-play) Emanuel Wilson's 27 and Tee Higgins's 26.7 led the way, but El Masri still lost by 24 to Nick Inman. A -0.159 luck delta confirms it: this is a newcomer's roster getting outscored by a far more established one, not a disaster, just a league that doesn't care how new you are.

11. Cameron Crazies — Brian Jones (2-2, 14-30 all-play) Kyren Williams put up 36.7 points and Jones still lost 140.72-81.48 to Weaver. A 14-30 all-play record is the worst mark attached to any .500 team in the league, and a +0.182 luck delta means the 2-2 record is flattering a roster that's actually been one of the league's worst four teams. Jones has a title in the archive. It is not walking through that door again at this rate.

12. Sir, TheyHitThe2ndBowers — Ollie Simmonds (0-4, 6-38 all-play) Brock Bowers's 20.6 was the highlight in a 103-76.38 loss to Penney, and a 6-38 all-play record is, mathematically, the worst four-week stretch in this league this season by a wide margin. Simmonds has a runner-up finish on his record somewhere in the archive, which only makes this current freefall funnier. The numbers were never in question. They rarely are for this team.