Six games on the board this week and I've got a real problem, which is that two teams are sitting at 5-0 and I only trust one of them to cash a ticket if I needed it. That's the job though. I don't get paid in respect, I get paid in units, and I haven't been paid in either for a while. Let's go.

Cameron Crazies (Brian Jones) vs bcunnion (Ben Cunnion) — Jones at 531.86 points for, Ben sitting pretty at 633.3 and riding a W2 with an all-play mark of 32-23 that actually means something. Jones is 3-2 off a +0.255 luck delta, which in my world is a man who's been winning close ones he probably shouldn't. Ben's a three-time champion in this league's history and he didn't get there by needing luck. Lean: Ben Cunnion, two units, no mercy.

Wade for Heisman (Kevin Jones) vs Joe Buck Yourself (Ryan Weaver) — I want to talk myself into Kevin Jones here and I physically cannot. Weaver is 5-0, an all-play record of 47-8 that should be illegal in a 12-team league, and Kevin's riding an L3 with 529.74 points for the season against Weaver's 784.14. This isn't a matchup, it's a toll booth. Lean: Weaver, heaviest chalk on the board, and I'm still taking it because the under is family but the obvious winner is also family sometimes.

TacoDreams (Nick Inman) vs Chase Greatness (John Penney) — Inman's at 625.96 with a W2, Penney's coming off a 60.7-point no-show against Trent Harley last week that I'm still thinking about at 2am. Lean: Nick Inman. I'd lay more but Inman's luck delta sits at -0.055, which tells me the schedule hasn't been doing him any favors even while he's winning. Respect where it's due.

Sir, TheyHitThe2ndBowers (Ollie Simmonds) vs ArabMamba6 (Ryan El Masri) — 0-5 against 1-4, the basement derby, the game nobody bet legally anywhere in America. Ollie's all-play is 12-43, which is almost impressive in its consistency. El Masri's 516 points for beats Ollie's 459.06 and that's basically the whole handicap. Lean: El Masri. I've also got a prop that Ollie extends the losing streak to six, and I'm laying heavy units on it because I'm a realist, not a sadist.

Diamond Dogs (Justin Waitt) vs ParmBijan Cheese (Trent Harley) — Here's my favorite game on the board. Trent's 5-0 but his luck delta is a jaw-dropping +0.436, the loudest number on this entire sheet, and his all-play of 31-24 says he's been winning games he had no business winning. Justin's 2-3 with an L3 but he's actually outscoring Trent on the season, 654.12 to 608.64, and his all-play of 33-22 is the better résumé by a mile. The record lies. The number doesn't. Lean: Justin Waitt as my upset special of the week, and I'll sweat the moneyline too. Someone invite me to the Odd Ducks/Even Ducks council so I can file a formal complaint about Trent's schedule.

All Gas No Drakes (Elliott Simmonds) vs 4th and 20 (Evan Sinn) — Evan went 11-3 last year, best record in the league, and that man knows how to win in October and November whatever else happens later. He's at 635.14 points for now, well clear of Elliott's 559.1, and he's riding a W1 while Elliott's luck delta sits at a miserable -0.291. Lean: Evan Sinn.

Bankroll update: still down, still breathing, still have not found one human being in either league willing to take the other side of a single number I've posted in six weeks. That's not a market inefficiency, fellas, that's fear. I'm not proud of this, but I'm in, on all six.