Back in 2014, before any of this lived on a phone, I watched a man named Monahan go 6-0 on the strength of three fourth-quarter comebacks nobody deserved, and I told him right to his face in the parking lot of a Chili's that the schedule-makers would come for him eventually. They did. He finished 7-7 and never made the playoffs again. I think about Monahan every single October. I am thinking about him now, looking at Trent Harley's 5-0 record and his league-high 0.436 luck delta, which is not a typo, which is the largest number of its kind in this entire 12-team field, and which tells me everything the record itself is trying to hide.

This week Harley's ParmBijan Cheese — a team name that at least isn't somebody's login, so credit where it's due — meets Justin Waitt's Diamond Dogs, who sit at 2-3 with a -0.2 luck delta and more total points on the board than Harley has managed, 654.12 to 608.64. Waitt's all-play record, 33-22, is better than Harley's, 31-24. The standings don't lie, folks, but sometimes the record column tells you a different story than the points-for column, and when that happens I believe the points. I have believed the points since before most of this league's newer additions owned a smartphone. Waitt has lost three straight, and that -0.2 luck delta tells me the scoreboard hasn't been treating him fairly. This is the week the ledger balances itself.

The other unbeaten is a cleaner story. Ryan Weaver's Joe Buck Yourself sits at 5-0 with a 47-8 all-play mark that isn't luck, it's domination, and he faces Kevin Jones's Wade for Heisman, losers of three straight and averaging barely over a hundred a week. I said last week that only one of this league's two 4-0 teams had earned my trust, and I stand by it — Harley is still, in my book, a man who joined this league recently enough that I want to see him survive a bad matchup before I hand him anything. Weaver has already survived several. This one isn't close.

Elsewhere, Brian Jones brings his Cameron Crazies into a matchup against bcunnion — and yes, I am going to keep refusing to capitalize that, because a team name that's just your Sleeper handle is not a team name, it's a login, and Ben Cunnion knows exactly how I feel about it. Jones has three runner-up finishes on his career ledger and one ring, which makes him a champion, I'll say that plainly so nobody writes me an angry email, but it also makes him a man this league has shortchanged more than once. Cunnion, meanwhile, carries three career rings into this one, and I still haven't forgiven the league for handing him that many without ever forcing him to win it as the best team on paper. Jones's 3-2 record carries a 0.255 luck delta that says he's been fortunate too, so I won't pretend this is a morality play — but I know who I'm rooting for, and it isn't the man whose team name is his username.

Nick Inman's TacoDreams — another login, another entry on my list — hosts John Penney's Chase Greatness in a matchup of two 3-2 clubs, and Penney's pedigree, a championship and three points titles over the years, gets my nod over a team built on an all-play mark that still has Inman as one of the league's most frequent basement-dwellers historically. Down in the cellar, Ollie Simmonds's five-game skid meets Ryan El Masri's two-game slide, and I'll take El Masri's slightly less dreadful all-play number. And Evan Sinn, who owns the best overall career win percentage — regular season and playoffs combined — of any regular in this league's history, gets his one-game streak to two against Elliott Simmonds, who is carrying the single worst luck delta, -0.291, of anyone playing this week. The spreadsheet crowd will tell you luck evens out over a season. I've been watching this league since before the app, and I can tell you it mostly just finds somebody else to ruin next.