Six weeks in, the standings are lying to most of you, and I am, as always, the only person in this building willing to say so out loud. All-play record exists precisely for weeks like this one — it strips out the accident of schedule and tells you who has actually been good. The regular record tells you who got lucky against whom. Obviously, these are not the same question, no matter how many times Kingsley insists otherwise on his podcast. The all-play table below is correct. The regular-season standings are a rough approximation of it that occasionally gets embarrassed.
1. Elliott Simmonds — DELAWARE CHICKEN FARMER'S (6-0) A 66-12 all-play record is not a fluke, it is a verdict. Malik Nabers dropped 28.5 and Jaxon Smith-Njigba added 25.4, and his weakest starters, Javonte Williams and Romeo Doubs, still posted 13 and 11.2. A luck delta of +0.154 means the model thinks he's actually gotten a slight tailwind on top of the talent, which should terrify everybody else in this league. There is no honest argument against this team right now, which is the only kind of team I respect.
2. Charlie Koepsell — Long Hair Dont Care (5-1) A 54-24 all-play record paired with an actual 5-1 record is what parity is supposed to look like before Ben Cunnion ruins it for everyone. Jonathan Taylor put up 21.1 and George Kittle added 20.4 in a win over Hunter Koepsell, who remains the league's answer to a bye week. Koepsell's floor, even with Malachi Fields and Dawson Knox rotting at the bottom of his lineup, still cleared 95. That's a real team built on real weekly margins, not matchup luck.
3. Chris Boyle — The Epitome of Brutality (4-2) Boyle's 53-25 all-play mark is tied for third-best in the league, and unlike some teams I'll get to shortly, his luck delta sits at a nearly inert -0.013 — meaning this record is earned, not gifted. Trevor Lawrence put up 28.34, Kenneth Walker added 27.9 and Isaiah Likely chipped in 26.9 in a 163.94 explosion, and he still had Jaylen Warren and Tyler Allgeier as his weak links. Commissioner privilege does not show up anywhere in this model, for the record, since I know that's what McBoyle's readers want me to imply.
4. Justin Waitt — Wisconsin Weezy (2-4) Here is this week's required public service announcement: Justin Waitt's 53-25 all-play record is tied with Boyle's for third-best in the entire league, and his actual record is 2-4. His luck delta of -0.346 is the single worst figure in the Nevin Place Memorial League by a wide margin — he has been robbed with a consistency that borders on performance art. James Cook put up 24.3 and Colston Loveland added 21.5 and he still lost. I am ranking him above three teams with winning records and I will not be apologizing for it.
5. Sean Gibbins — smg07f (3-3) A 48-30 all-play record stapled to a 3-3 actual mark, and a team name that is still just his own Sleeper handle after six weeks, which remains the laziest piece of roster construction in this league regardless of points scored. Christian McCaffrey's 30.7 was wasted in a loss to Boyle, and his luck delta of -0.115 suggests the universe owes him a correction. Change the team name before Week 8, Sean.
6. Brian Jones — ShitCo Summer (5-1) Here is where the standings and the truth diverge violently. Jones is 5-1, but his 44-34 all-play record is barely above water, and his luck delta of +0.269 is the highest in the league, full stop. A 93.56 win over Evan Sinn's 91.08 is not dominance, it's a coin flip that landed his way for the fifth time. A manager riding the league's single luckiest number through six weeks should know better than to coast on margins this thin.
7. Jamie Sinn — Tuten that thang up (3-3) An honest, boring 43-35 all-play record matched almost exactly by a 3-3 actual mark and a -0.051 luck delta — this is what a team looks like when the model and the standings agree, which happens less often than you'd think in this league. Bhayshul Tuten's 24.7 wasn't enough against Cunnion, largely because Tyler Warren and Jared Goff combined to contribute a round, perfect zero to the box score.
8. Tareq Hafza — Shadynasty (4-2) A 40-38 all-play record and a +0.154 luck delta tell you this 4-2 is flattering but not fictional. Germie Bernard dropped 25.7 and Matthew Golden added 22.4 to bury Ryan Weaver, whose all-play record I will get to in a moment and which should embarrass everyone who scheduled against him and still found a way to lose.
9. Ben Cunnion — bcunnion (4-2) Obviously, this was a coin flip masquerading as a hot streak. Cunnion is 4-2 with a 36-42 all-play record — a losing all-play record — and a +0.205 luck delta that ranks among the highest in the league. Tyler Shough posted 26.96 points and Kyle Pitts added 25.5, and that was enough to edge Jamie Sinn's 88.42. Fraud Watch stays permanently open on this name, and the model does not care that he's getting away with it again.
10. Evan Sinn — Evan Sinn (1-5) A 32-46 all-play record and a -0.244 luck delta make this a legitimately snakebitten season, which is almost funny given his reputation elsewhere for riding a soft schedule to a flattering record. Chig Okonkwo's 17.4 team-high says everything about where this roster currently sits. Ladd McConkey's 2.7 points as a starter did not help matters.
11. Joe Hamm — jhamm89 (1-5) A 27-51 all-play record buried under a 1-5 actual mark, though a -0.179 luck delta suggests the record should be marginally less bad than it looks. Tre Tucker's 26.7 and a win over Kevin Jones give him something to build on, for whatever that's worth at 1-5 in October.
12. Kevin Jones — Bannermen (3-3) A 22-56 all-play record in this league is as bad as it sounds, and a +0.218 luck delta is propping up a 3-3 record that the underlying numbers think should be closer to 2-4. Josh Allen's 18.3 as his top scorer tells you exactly how thin this roster's ceiling is right now.
13. Hunter Koepsell — hunterk4 (0-6) An 18-60 all-play record and a six-game losing streak that the model mostly backs up — though his -0.231 luck delta suggests even an 0-6 start has had some bad bounces mixed in, which remains the least consoling sentence I've written this season. D'Andre Swift's 23 points was the extent of the highlights in a 74.72 output.
14. Ryan Weaver — Bock Bock Bitch (1-5) A 10-68 all-play record is the worst figure in this league by eight full games, and it is not particularly close. One actual win is propping up a season the model considers a historic outlier even among the bottom tier, and a +0.038 luck delta means this isn't variance, it's just the product. Dameon Pierce's team-high 15 points against Tareq's 95.36 says all that needs saying. The chicken-themed team name remains the only thing performing above expectation here.
The standings will keep pretending the top of this league is a three-team race. The all-play table knows it's Simmonds, then everyone else arguing about seeding.