The keeper deadline is bearing down and, per usual, half this room is about to make a keeper decision on vibes instead of arithmetic. I've done the arithmetic. Obviously.
Methodology, stated once so nobody emails me about it: market value below is ESPN's 2026 draft-kit PPR number scaled to this room's $2,400 pool (a flat 1.2x on ESPN's $2,000 sheet), raised to FantasyNerds' 12-team figure wherever that source priced a player higher. Treat the number as settled, because it is.
Part One: The Top 25 by Surplus
| Rank | Player | Team (Manager) | Keeper Price | Market | Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Puka Nacua | TacoDreams (Nick Inman) | $31 | $67 | +36 |
| 2 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Diamond Dogs (Justin Waitt) | $34 | $65 | +31 |
| 3 | De'Von Achane | Threat Level Midnight (Brian Jones) | $32 | $60 | +28 |
| 4 | Rashee Rice | Jackson for Heisman (Kevin Jones) | $26 | $52 | +26 |
| 5 | Trey McBride | Diamond Dogs (Justin Waitt) | $31 | $48 | +17 |
| 6 | Javonte Williams | Joe Buck Yourself (Ryan Weaver) | $16 | $31 | +15 |
| 7 | Jonathan Taylor | Threat Level Midnight (Brian Jones) | $49 | $62 | +13 |
| 8 | Brock Bowers | Saving Private Brian (Ollie Simmonds) | $25 | $38 | +13 |
| 9 | Chase Brown | Chase Greatness (John Penney) | $27 | $40 | +13 |
| 10 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | bcunnion (Ben Cunnion) | $51 | $62 | +11 |
| 11 | Chris Olave | bcunnion (Ben Cunnion) | $24 | $35 | +11 |
| 12 | Quinshon Judkins | bcunnion (Ben Cunnion) | $14 | $24 | +10 |
| 13 | Ja'Marr Chase | Chase Greatness (John Penney) | $58 | $66 | +8 |
| 14 | Travis Etienne | Silence of the Lambs (Trent Harley) | $17 | $25 | +8 |
| 15 | James Cook | bcunnion (Ben Cunnion) | $47 | $54 | +7 |
| 16 | Cam Skattebo | Jackson for Heisman (Kevin Jones) | $19 | $25 | +6 |
| 17 | Breece Hall | Saving Private Brian (Ollie Simmonds) | $33 | $38 | +5 |
| 18 | Omarion Hampton | Naberhood Watch (Elliott Simmonds) | $41 | $44 | +3 |
| 19 | Colston Loveland | Jackson for Heisman (Kevin Jones) | $13 | $16 | +3 |
| 20 | Nico Collins | TacoDreams (Nick Inman) | $34 | $37 | +3 |
| 21 | Bucky Irving | TacoDreams (Nick Inman) | $21 | $23 | +2 |
| 22 | DeVonta Smith | Diamond Dogs (Justin Waitt) | $26 | $28 | +2 |
| 23 | Kenneth Walker III | bcunnion (Ben Cunnion) | $33 | $32 | -1 |
| 24 | Drake London | 4th and 20 (Evan Sinn) | $55 | $54 | -1 |
| 25 | Tyler Warren | 4th and 20 (Evan Sinn) | $17 | $16 | -1 |
Inman's $36 surplus on Puka Nacua isn't just the top of this board, it's the widest gap in the room, and it should surprise nobody that the same manager posted a strong 109-45 all-play mark at 10-4 — good, but not the league's best; that distinction belongs to Justin Waitt at 118-36, and we'll get there. Either way, the won-loss column undersells him.
Ben Cunnion landing three separate top-12 values is the least fun sentence I've had to write all season. He sits at 8-6, fourth in the standings, mildly unlucky by my own numbers (luck_delta -0.052) — the luckiest run in this league's sample belongs to Evan Sinn's 11-3 (luck_delta +0.312), not this one. That the board also says Cunnion is sitting correctly at the auction table is an unrelated fact and I resent having to report it next to the other one.
And there, at 24 and 25, is Evan Sinn — owner of the league's best record at 11-3 — contributing precisely zero clean keepers to a 25-player board. Drake London and Tyler Warren are his best options and both cost a dollar more than they're worth. The numbers were never in question. Sinn built an 11-3 season on a roster that, priced honestly, can't clear its own auction tab.
Part Two: All Twelve Rooms
Threat Level Midnight (Brian Jones)
Keep De'Von Achane ($32, mkt $60) and Jonathan Taylor ($49, mkt $62) and stop there. Achane at $32 is a top-12 running back for the price of a WR3, and the projection is simple: paid RB1 usage on a full-PPR scoring plan clears this number by midseason. Everything else on this roster is a sunk cost — George Kittle at $38 against a $2 market is the kind of number that should be studied in a lab.
Jackson for Heisman (Kevin Jones)
All three slots earn it: Rashee Rice ($26, mkt $52), Cam Skattebo ($19, mkt $25), Colston Loveland ($13, mkt $16). Rice at $26 is a top-five value play room-wide, full stop. Mike Evans at $47 against a $5 market and Alvin Kamara at $38 against $1 are why three-time champion Kevin Jones is spending $200 a year and finishing 6-8.
TacoDreams (Nick Inman)
Puka Nacua ($31, mkt $67) is the best keeper in the sport. Add Nico Collins ($34, mkt $37) and Bucky Irving ($21, mkt $23) for rounding value. Near miss: Christian McCaffrey at $71 against a $64 market is close enough to sweat, but the name isn't the number — cut it. Marvin Harrison Jr. carries a $44 keeper price against an $8 market and is a museum piece; the room paid up for name recognition once, and the market has already moved on.
Saving Private Brian (Ollie Simmonds)
Brock Bowers ($25, mkt $38) and Breece Hall ($33, mkt $38) both clear. Justin Jefferson at $70 against a $58 market doesn't — a top-five receiver priced like a top-five receiver, which is the one thing keeper leagues punish. George Pickens sits at a wash. Take the two that pay and let the rest walk.
Joe Buck Yourself (Ryan Weaver)
Javonte Williams ($16, mkt $31) is the lone keep, and it's a real one — a $15 surplus on a starting back is a title-caliber flyer at that price. Nothing else on this board clears; Saquon Barkley at $70 against a $43 market is $27 of nostalgia tax.
bcunnion (Ben Cunnion)
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($51, mkt $62), Chris Olave ($24, mkt $35), Quinshon Judkins ($14, mkt $24) — and that's the impossible part, because James Cook at $47 against a $54 market is a clean +7 that gets left in the cold by the three-keeper rule. Whichever way Cunnion breaks this, the board says he built four keepers worth keeping on a roster that sits 8-6. Luck doesn't do that. Depth does. I'll say it once and move on.
Diamond Dogs (Justin Waitt)
The best full board in the league: Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($34, mkt $65), Trey McBride ($31, mkt $48), DeVonta Smith ($26, mkt $28). Smith-Njigba alone is a $31 surplus, second only to Nacua room-wide. Waitt's roster holds the league's best all-play mark this season (118-36) and this board is exactly what that number predicted.
Naberhood Watch (Elliott Simmonds)
Omarion Hampton ($41, mkt $44) is the only keep, and barely. A.J. Brown at $54 against a $36 market and Malik Nabers at $46 against $23 are among the worst keeper prices on any bench in this survey. This board is a cautionary tale, not a plan.
4th and 20 (Evan Sinn)
Zero. None. The board recommends nothing. Jahmyr Gibbs at $72 against a $68 market, Drake London at $55 against $54, Tyler Warren at $17 against $16 — every single asset on the league's best record is priced a dollar or more above what it's worth. Fraud Watch doesn't need me to editorialize here. The spreadsheet did it for me.
Chase Greatness (John Penney)
Chase Brown ($27, mkt $40) and Ja'Marr Chase ($58, mkt $66) both clear, and cleanly. Penney remains the best-run roster relative to variance in this league — a 5-9 record sitting on top-13 keeper value at wide receiver is exactly the kind of gap between outcome and process I've spent two years trying to get this room to care about. Drake Maye at $13 against a $12 market is a rounding error worth keeping only if there's a fourth slot. There isn't.
Silence of the Lambs (Trent Harley)
Travis Etienne ($17, mkt $25) is the one keep on a thin board. Derrick Henry at $63 against a $48 market and CeeDee Lamb at $69 against $61 are both underwater — impressive company to lose money in, but losing money all the same.
ArabMamba6 (Ryan El Masri)
Zero recommended keepers, and it isn't close. Bijan Robinson at $75 against a $67 market is the best of a bad set and still eight dollars underwater. Josh Allen at $43 against $26 and Jerry Jeudy at $25 against $1 round out an auction sheet that priced like nobody had run a market before. Somebody had — just not carefully.
The deadline comes for everyone. Cunnion's the one who should be losing sleep over which +$10 he throws back.