Nothing is official. Declarations haven't synced across the league, sources tell me, which means every general manager in this room still has a window to fix a mistake before it becomes permanent. Some of them don't know they're about to make one.
Start with the good news, because there's a genuine heist sitting in Nick Inman's garage. Inman can keep three players at $31 for Puka Nacua, who profiles as a $67 asset on the open market this winter. That's a $36 surplus, the widest gap in this entire survey, and it isn't attached to a rookie-hype crash — it's just a star at a discount. The problem — and a source close to the situation confirmed this is keeping Inman up at night — is that Christian McCaffrey costs $71 to keep and Marvin Harrison costs $44, and Inman only gets to protect three names total. Nacua is locked. McCaffrey at $71 is a name-brand luxury tax on a back who may not be the league's best value even at full health. Harrison at $44 for what the market currently prices as an $8 player is the kind of keeper that gets you laughed out of the group chat. Sources say Inman knows it. Sources say he hasn't pulled the trigger. More on this as it develops.
Across the league, Justin Waitt is sitting on the second-cleanest heist on the board and doesn't seem to know it. Jaxon Smith-Njigba costs $34 on Diamond Dogs. Market says $65. That's a $31 surplus, right behind Nacua's league-best number. Trey McBride at $31 is milder value — a $17 gap against a $48 market — but still free money at these prices. The dilemma: Waitt is also holding Tee Higgins at $43 and Aaron Jones at $34, two keepers that would require serious institutional denial to protect. A person granted anonymity to discuss Diamond Dogs' board says Waitt has been "talking himself into" Higgins for a week. Don't. The math doesn't move because you want it to.
Now the ugly stuff. Kevin Jones built Jackson for Heisman around a genuinely shrewd $26 keeper in Rashee Rice — a legitimate $52 asset for half price, no notes. Then he apparently kept going. Mike Evans is a $47 keeper priced by the market at roughly $5. Alvin Kamara is $38 for a $1 player. RJ Harvey, drafted as a rookie lottery ticket, now costs $37 to keep on a $2 valuation. Three keeper slots, three landmines, one gem. Sources tell me Kevin Jones has not declared. Sources also tell me he should declare quickly, before he talks himself into defending the Evans price the way he apparently already talked himself into the Kamara price.
Ryan Weaver has one number that stands out even in a room full of big tickets: Saquon Barkley at $70, one of the priciest keeper commitments in the entire league, trailing only Bijan Robinson's $75 on Ryan El Masri's shelf, Jahmyr Gibbs's $72 on Evan Sinn's board, and Christian McCaffrey's $71 sitting right there on Inman's own roster — and tied with Justin Jefferson's $70 sitting on Ollie Simmonds's shelf. The market has Barkley at $43. That's a $27 hole Weaver dug himself with last year's price plus ten, and a person familiar with Joe Buck Yourself's thinking says the front office is "still weighing it," which in insider language means they've already decided to eat the loss and are looking for someone to blame.
And then there's Brian Jones, whose board reads like two separate franchises spliced together. De'Von Achane at $32 for a $60 player is elite value. Jonathan Taylor at $49 for $62 works fine. But George Kittle sits at a $38 keeper price against a market that's crashed to $2, Lamar Jackson is $34 against $12, and Terry McLaurin is $38 against $20. Threat Level Midnight can only keep three. If Jones protects Kittle over Achane out of loyalty to last year's price tag, that's not a keeper decision. That's a eulogy.
Meanwhile Ben Cunnion, the 2024 champion, is sitting there with Amon-Ra St. Brown at $51 against a $62 valuation and James Cook at $47 against $54, quietly running the tightest board in the league and saying nothing to anybody. Sources close to the situation describe this as "extremely on brand."
The deadline is coming. Nobody's filed. Sources: it's done, right up until it isn't.
