I'm not proud of this, but I'm in on every game this week. That's not a brag, that's a diagnosis. Let's get to the board.
Elliott Simmonds -3.5 over Brian Jones (matchup 5) Elliott opened the season by dropping 22.62 on Nick Inman's face, and I need you to understand that number is now sacred to me. Brian Jones is a real champion with three runner-up finishes on his ledger, so respect the resume, but resumes don't cover spreads. I've got Elliott -3.5, and I'm laying the extra half point because the board would be lying to you otherwise. 1.5 units.
John Penney -2.5 over Kevin Jones (matchup 3) Kevin's got three rings sitting in a drawer somewhere, which is the kind of thing that makes people overrate him early in a season. Penney's the guy nobody talks about who just quietly has more career wins than the man across from him this week. Books would open this at pick'em if books existed, which they don't, which is a travesty I've written three letters about. Penney -2.5. 2 units, and I'd bet more if the commissioner would just answer my emails.
Nick Inman -3.5 over Ryan Weaver (matchup 6) Nick just got embarrassed 22.62-14.5 in Week 1, and that number, 14.5, is the kind of score that follows a man home. But here's the thing about bad beat kinship — I ride with the guys who got humiliated in public, and Nick's the reigning points leader in this league from a season ago. He scored the most points in all of Heavyweights in 2025 and opened this year looking like he forgot how. I'm buying the bounce-back. Nick Inman -3.5. This is a gut lean and I own it. 1 unit.
Ollie Simmonds -1.5 over Trent Harley (matchup 1) Ollie is the league's most tortured ringless finalist — a runner-up with no hardware, which in my professional opinion is worse than never getting there at all, because now he knows exactly what it feels like to lose the big one. Trent's the newest, least experienced manager in this league, still learning where the bodies are buried. I like veteran heartbreak over a green roster in a pick'em spot. Ollie -1.5, small stake, 1 unit, mostly out of sympathy.
Evan Sinn +2.5 over Ben Cunnion (matchup 2) Here's my marquee game and here's where I go against the room. Cunnion is a three-time champion who finished 8-6 as the 4-seed last year, and I respect a resume like that, I truly do. But Evan Sinn ran 11-3 last season, the best record in the entire league, and I've always believed a manager who wins that many games eventually gets paid for it by the math. I like where Evan sits right now, call it a read, call it a bias, I call it value. Evan Sinn +2.5. 2 units, my biggest play of the week.
Justin Waitt -4.5 over Ryan El Masri (matchup 4) Justin's got a championship on his record and El Masri is still building toward his first winning season as a Heavyweights manager. This is the closest thing to a lock the board offers me all week, and I still won't call anything a lock, because I have been burned by locks before and the scar tissue runs deep. Waitt -4.5. 2 units.
Bankroll update, because transparency is a public service: I am down enough units that I've stopped converting to a currency that exists in the real world, and I'm at peace with that. The under is family. Nobody in either league has taken one of my props all year, and I remain convinced that's fear, not disinterest. Somebody prove me wrong before Thanksgiving.